Democrats seem to be missing the smaller election battles.
Right now, Democrats are scared. Despite a rousing Democratic National Convention and strong momentum behind the Harris campaign, Democrats around the country seem stuck in this vortex of panic. Donald Trump and Project 2025 have been wrapped together in the Democratic consciousness as an existential, individual threat. This is not fully baseless. Project 2025 largely centers on Trump with much of the focus of the plan being on the amplification of executive power. One notable protocol would allow for the direct firing and rehiring of thousands of department officials in the executive branch. However, it is lost on many Democrats that the president, as much as Bill Barr may not like to believe it, does not and can not operate as a unitary executive. The implementation of anti-immigrant policy, the continued deconstruction of female bodily autonomy, the gutting of public education and many other pillars to Project 2025 require cooperation from Congress, state legislatures and down ticket actors across the country. These are the races that Democrats are forgetting in the face of the presidential race.
The 2024 Senate election map is unfavorable for Democrats to say the least. With a slim 51-49 majority, Republicans need to flip only two Senate seats to take the chamber in November and there are eight seats that Democrats are at high risk of losing and, therefore, must defend. Now, saying two Senate seats may be a little misleading. With Joe Manchin not seeking re-election, Democrats have about as much of a chance at holding on to his seat in West Virginia as a Libertarian has a chance at becoming the next president. According to a recent Research America poll, Democrat Glen Elliott is polling 34 points behind Republican Jim Justice. With West Virginia off the table, one might wonder if Democrats have a chance of flipping any Republican-held seats. Unfortunately for them, the Republican seat that is currently the most vulnerable is Ted Cruz in Texas. While Cruz is not invincible, with recent polls putting him only four to eight points ahead of his competitor, it is hard to focus on the off chance of displacing Cruz when Democrats have seven must-win races ahead. While Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are all important races, Democrats must zero in on Democratic incumbents Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Jon Tester in Montana.
Ohio has not been a comfortable state for Democrats in the most recent election cycles. In both 2016 and 2020, Trump carried the state by eight points. Senator JD Vance carried the state in 2022 with a six point margin to succeed Republican incumbent Rob Portman in the Senate. Furthermore, the state is currently polling 10 points in favor of Trump for this year’s election, which is an even stronger showing than in 2020. Ohio seems distinctly resistant to many of the Democratic appeals that have won over states like Georgia and Arizona in recent years. This is all despite a 2023 ballot initiative in Ohio that gave constitutional protections for abortion. Abortion has been a major issue for recent democratic success in special elections like the Democrat Tom Suozzi’s overperformance in a recent special election to replace representative Santos. This is all to say that incumbent Democratic Senator Brown is particularly vulnerable this election cycle, holding a slim two to four point advantage in polling against his Republican challenger.
Even more precarious for Democrats is the defense of incumbent Democratic Senator Tester from Montana. Montana is not a battleground state nor is it particularly close to being one. Trump carried the state by over 20 points in 2016 and over 16 points in 2020. Republicans currently outnumber Democrats in both chambers of the State Legislature over two to one. Despite this, Tester has been a popular senior Senator. He won his first term in 2006 by less than a single point but has grown that lead to three and a half points in 2012 and to four and a half points in 2018. However, this year, Republicans have poured money and expertise into the state of Montana and nominated Tim Sheehy to unseat Tester. Despite some strong early polls, Tester currently trails Sheehy by roughly six points. Yet, Democrats barely seem to notice. This trend is not just restricted to the Senate as races all the way down the ticket are promising to make big waves.
Presumably most students at this university are at least vaguely familiar with Superintendent Ryan Walters—the man who appointed the creator of “Libs of TikTok” to a state committee despite the fact that she grew up in California and worked in New York. While Walters is not defending his seat this election cycle, many of the legislators who enable him are. Every election plays a role in the political ecosystem. To illustrate this, look at North Carolina. Like Oklahoma, races across the ballot threaten dangerous change. If you have heard anything about North Carolina elections, you may have heard about the anti-semitic, homophobic Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson. Running on the ballot with Robinson, quietly sitting down the ballot in the superintendent race is Michele Morrow. She is a nurse who homeschools and has called for the execution of former president Barack Obama, 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and other prominent Democrats by firing squad. These two are dangerous and few care about Robinson while even less care about Morrow. If you think this is not important to non-North Carolinians, you are flat wrong. North Carolina is the only state in the southeast that has abortion access for terms between six and twelve weeks. Democratic Governor Roy Cooper has maintained access to many different vital health services purely through his bitter resistance to the brutally gerrymandered state legislature. Do not forget the superintendent either. The power of education to protect trans youth, ensure access to reliable, unbiased information, as well as the maintaining of adequate public schooling is vital and when education is valued in one state, the whole country benefits.
Thus, all voters must pay attention. While our votes lie in our home states, every American’s mind should be set to elections around the country. It is our duty to stay informed in our own down ballot elections and to advocate for vital elections around the country. If Project 2025 scares you, voting for Harris is not the simple solution. Do not get me wrong. Trump is key to the implementation of policies that could gut national agency authority and compromise important climate and health initiatives. But there is so much more to our government, and, if you let everything else go, you may not see the little ways that regressive policy can trickle into every part of our country.
